Could this Change Everything?

NASA chief Chris Scolese has hinted that plans for a moon base are in doubt. “NASA will probably not build an outpost on the moon as originally planned.” If this proves to be true, the implications are far-reaching.

For example, here is a sampling of responses on twitter about the news:

Scolese says NASA is being asked to do too much with too little funding.

NASA gets cold feet on Moon base plan: Lunar outpost apparently off the agenda

NASA Acting Admin Scolese believes China will have ability to go to Moon before US regains that capacity.

Rumors of NASA abandoning the Moon seem to be greatly exaggerated compared to what Scolese actually said.

While it may be too soon to tell what NASA actually intends to do, if there isn’t going to be an American lunar outpost, this could either preserve or doom the moon, depending on whether others see an opportunity to step up efforts to stake claims on the lunar regolith.

Maybe developing an outpost is not worth it to anyone. Other countries or private firms may see no advantage to it. The moon is not very accessible to very many–not like California or the Klondike when those gold rushes took place. Without NASA leading the way, the moon could remain largely untouched for decades.

But if nations like China, or private organizations spurred on by lunar competitions and prizes determine their futures depend on being first, unregulated development could have permanent, negative ecological consequences.

This bears watching.

Moon Rush: Another Environmental Disaster?

The environmental impact of a rush to claim land can be devastating. When people swarm to satisfy their desire for riches–and land gets in the way–the land usually suffers. The California Gold Rush in the mid-1800′s is a good case in point. Journalist Chris Bowman describes the scene:

“Opportunists swarming the Sierra Nevada like grasshoppers, rearranging its rivers and streams, choking them with mining debris, polluting them with everlasting mercury, scalping hillsides, denuding forests, overfishing, overhunting, overrunning meadows with livestock, introducing diseases, displacing native plants, ousting thousands of environmentally conscious American Indians and forever shattering the primeval stillness of the mountains.”

What would happen if there was a Moon Rush? Would we have learned that it does not pay to be careless about the environment? While it’s unlikely that we will displace native moon men and Martians by claiming land on distant worlds, what will be displaced or ruined forever by such a rush? What non-native objects, including bacteria and diseases, will be introduced? Can they be avoided? Can there be such a thing as an orderly rush? If moon development proceeds with unregulated use, we have learned nothing from the Gold Rush about our own destructive swarm behavior.

What Do You Think?
As you think about the coming Moon Rush, what do you think will happen? Will staking claims on the moon, or Mars, be left entirely to the most aggressive early birds or will there be policies in place for regulated use? Who will police space? The time to start thinking about these questions is now. Let it not be said by future generations that our space opportunists, like the Gold Rush miners of the previous millenium, were ecological invaders whose exploits still haunt the environment.

–Jan Nowak, CFA